Intro

Can we achieve the Paris Agreement?
How do we represent known unknowns in climate models?
What is the cost of failure?

In order to reduce uncertainty, we have to represent uncertainty.

Climate risk assessments require linking mitigation decisions to impacts and their consequences. In order to get there, we need to reconsider how we design climate experiments: focusing on risks linked to decisions.

My research aims to achieve this through better characterisation of uncertainties of mitigation technology and negative emissions, formal statistical tools to highlight conditional risks of mitigation decisions and robust characterization of how climate risks at the global scale project onto the human scale.

Publications

(Published or in press)

  1. Sanderson, B. M., Pendergrass, A., Koven, C. D., Brient, F., Booth, B. B. B., Fisher, R. A., and Knutti, R.: On structural errors in emergent constraints, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], in review, 2021.
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-85
    [PDF]
  2. Dagon, K., Sanderson, B. M., Fisher, R. A., & Lawrence, D. M. (2020). A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6(2), 223-244.
    DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-6-223-2020
    [PDF]
  3. Peter Uhe, Dann Mitchell, Paul D Bates, Myles R Allen, Richard A Betts, Chris Huntingford, Andrew D King, Benjamin M Sanderson, and Hideo Shiogama. Method uncertainty is essential for reliable confidence statements of precipitation projections. Journal of Climate, 34(3):1227–1240, 2021
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0289.1
    [PDF]
  4. Tebaldi, Claudia, et al. Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6. Earth System Dynamics Discussions (2020): 1-50.
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-2020-68
    [PDF]
  5. Sanderson, Benjamin; Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty,Earth System Dynamics,11,3,721-735,2020,
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-721-2020
    [PDF]
  6. Sanderson, Benjamin; The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations,Earth System Dynamics,11,2,563-577,2020,Copernicus GmbH,
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-563-2020
    [PDF]
  7. Sanderson, Benjamin M; O’Neill, Brian C; ,Assessing the costs of historical inaction on climate change,Scientific Reports,10,1,1-12,2020,Nature Publishing Group
    DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-66275-4
    [PDF]
  8. Sanderson, Benjamin M; Fisher, Rosie A; ,A fiery wake-up call for climate science,Nature Climate Change,10,3,175-177,2020,Nature Publishing Group
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0707-2
    [PDF]
  9. Lawrence, David M; Fisher, Rosie A; Koven, Charles D; Oleson, Keith W; Swenson, Sean C; Bonan, Gordon; Collier, Nathan; Ghimire, Bardan; van Kampenhout, Leo; Kennedy, Daniel; ,The Community Land Model version 5: Description of new features, benchmarking, and impact of forcing uncertainty,Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11,12,4245-4287,2019,
    DOI: 10.1029/2018MS001583
    [PDF]
  10. Sanderson, Benjamin; ,The end of the wait for Climate Sensitivity?,Geophysical Research Letters,46,21,12289-12292,2019,
    DOI: 10.1029/2019GL084685
    [PDF]
  11. Castruccio, Stefano; Hu, Ziqing; Sanderson, Benjamin; Karspeck, Alicia; Hammerling, Dorit; ,Reproducing internal variability with few Ensemble runs,Journal of Climate,32,24,8511-8522,2019,
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0280.1
    [PDF]
  12. Fisher, Rosie A; Wieder, William R; Sanderson, Benjamin M; Koven, Charles D; Oleson, Keith W; Xu, Chonggang; Fisher, Joshua B; Shi, Mingjie; Walker, Anthony P; Lawrence, David M; ,Parametric controls on vegetation responses to biogeochemical forcing in the CLM5,Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,11,9,2879-2895,2019,
    DOI: 10.1029/2019MS001609
    [PDF]
  13. Veronika Eyring, Peter M Cox, Gregory M Flato, Peter J Gleckler, Gab Abramowitz, Peter Caldwell, William D Collins, Bettina K Gier, Alex D Hall, Forrest M Hoffman, et al. Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change, page 1, 2019.
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
    [PDF]
  14. Benjamin M Sanderson, Cameron Wobus, Dave Mills, Claire Zarakas, Allison Crimmins, Marcus C Sarofim, and Chris Weaver. Informing future risks of record-level rainfall in the United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 2019.
    DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082362
    [PDF]
  15. KW Oleson, GB Anderson, B Jones, SA McGinnis, and B Sanderson. Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the us using large climate model ensembles for rcp8. 5 and rcp4. 5. Climatic change, 146(3-4):377--392, 2018.
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1504-1
    [PDF]
  16. Yangyang Xu, Jean-François Lamarque, and Benjamin M Sanderson. The importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes. Climatic change, 146(3-4):393--406, 2018.
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1565-1
    [PDF]
  17. Benjamin M Sanderson, Keith W Oleson, Warren G Strand, Flavio Lehner, and Brian C O’Neill. A new ensemble of GCM simulations to assess a voided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario. Climatic Change, 146(3-4):303--318, 2018.
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1567-z
    [PDF]
  18. Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, and Benjamin M Sanderson. Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation. Climatic change, 146(3-4):363--375, 2018.
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2
    [PDF]
  19. Brian C O’Neill, James M Done, Andrew Gettelman, Peter Lawrence, Flavio Lehner, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Lei Lin, Andrew J Monaghan, Keith Oleson, Xiaolin Ren, et al. The benefits of reduced anthropogenic climate change (BRACE): a synthesis. Climatic change, 146(3-4):287--301, 2018.
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
    [PDF]
  20. Nadja Herger, Gab Abramowitz, Reto Knutti, Oliver Angélil, Karsten Lehmann, and Benjamin M Sanderson. Selecting a climate model subset to optimise key ensemble properties. Earth System Dynamics, 9(1):135--151, 2018.
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-135-2018
    [PDF]
  21. Travis Aerenson, Claudia Tebaldi, Ben Sanderson, and Jean-François Lamarque. Changes in a suite of indicators of extreme temperature and precipitation under 1.5 and 2 degrees warming. Environmental Research Letters, 13(3):035009, 2018.
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaafd6
    [PDF]
  22. Michael Wehner, Dáithí Stone, Dann Mitchell, Hideo Shiogama, Erich Fischer, Lise S Graff, Viatcheslav V Kharin, Ludwig Lierhammer, Benjamin Sanderson, and Harinarayan Krishnan. Changes in extremely hot days under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0° c global warming scenarios as simulated by the HAPPI multi-model ensemble. Earth System Dynamics, 9(1):299--311, 2018
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-9-299-2018
    [PDF]
  23. C Wobus, C Zarakas, P Malek, B Sanderson, A Crimmins, M Kolian, M Sarofim, and CP Weaver. Reframing future risks of extreme heat in the United States. Earth's Future, 6(9):1323--1335, 2018.
    DOI: 10.1029/2018EF000943
    [PDF]
  24. Reto Knutti, Jan Sedláček, Benjamin M Sanderson, Ruth Lorenz, Erich M Fischer, and Veronika Eyring. A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(4):1909--1918, 2017.
    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072012
    [PDF]
  25. Benjamin M Sanderson, Michael Wehner, and Reto Knutti. Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments. 2017.
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017
    [PDF]
  26. Flavio Lehner, Sloan Coats, Thomas F Stocker, Angeline G Pendergrass, Benjamin M Sanderson, Christoph C Raible, and Jason E Smerdon. Projected drought risk in 1.5 C and 2 C warmer climates. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(14):7419--7428, 2017.
    DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074117
    [PDF]
  27. Benjamin M Sanderson, Yangyang Xu, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Brian C O'Neill, Alexandra Jahn, Angeline G Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Warren G Strand, Lei Lin, et al. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2 C futures. Earth System Dynamics, 8(3):827--847, 2017.
    DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-827-2017
    [PDF]
  28. Benjamin DeAngelo, James Edmonds, David Fahey, and Benjamin Sanderson. Perspectives on climate change mitigation. 2017.
    [link]  
    [PDF]
  29. Benjamin Sanderson and Michael Wehner. Weighting strategy for the fourth national climate assessment (appendix b). 2017.
    [link]  
    [PDF]
  30. Katharine Hayhoe, James Edmonds, Robert Kopp, Allegra LeGrande, Benjamin Sanderson, Michael Wehner, and Donald Wuebbles. Climate models, scenarios, and projections. 2017.
    [link]
    [PDF]
  31. BM Sanderson and MF Wehner. Model weighting strategy. Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, 1:436--442, 2017.
    [link]
    [PDF]
  32. Angeline G Pendergrass, Reto Knutti, Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, and Benjamin M Sanderson. Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. Scientific reports, 7(1):17966, 2017.
    DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y
    [PDF]
  33. Benjamin M Sanderson, Brian C O'Neill, and Claudia Tebaldi. What would it take to achieve the paris temperature targets? Geophysical Research Letters, 43(13):7133--7142, 2016.
    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069563
    [PDF]
  34. S Tilmes, BM Sanderson, and BC O'Neill. Climate impacts of geoengineering in a delayed mitigation scenario. Geophysical Research Letters, 43(15):8222--8229, 2016.
    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070122
    [PDF]
  35. Brian C O'Neill, Claudia Tebaldi, Detlef P van Vuuren, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, George Hurtt, Reto Knutti, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Jason Lowe, et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9):3461--3482, 2016.
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
    [PDF]
  36. Benjamin M Sanderson and Reto Knutti. Delays in US mitigation could rule out Paris targets. Nature Climate Change, 7(2):92, 2016.
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3193
    [PDF]
  37. Allison H Baker, Dorit Hammerling, Sheri A Michelson, Haiying Xu, et al. Evaluating lossy data compression on climate simulation data within a large ensemble. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(12), 2016. 
    http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4381-2016
    [PDF]
  38. Benjamin M Sanderson, Reto Knutti, and Peter Caldwell. Addressing interdependency in a multimodel ensemble by interpolation of model properties. Journal of Climate, 28(13):5150--5170, 2015.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00361.1
    [PDF]
  39. Benjamin M Sanderson, Reto Knutti, and Peter Caldwell. A representative democracy to reduce interdependency in a multimodel ensemble. Journal of Climate, 28(13):5171--5194, 2015.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00362.1
    [PDF]
  40. Nadja Herger, Benjamin M Sanderson, and Reto Knutti. Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(9):3486--3494, 2015.

    DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063569
    [PDF]
  41. JT Fasullo, BM Sanderson, and KE Trenberth. Recent progress in constraining climate sensitivity with model ensembles. Current Climate Change Reports, 1(4):268--275, 2015.
    DOI: 10.1007/s40641-015-0021-7
    [PDF]
  42. Angeline G Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Benjamin M Sanderson, and Yangyang Xu. Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario? Geophysical Research Letters, 42(20):8767--8774, 2015.
    DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065854
    [PDF]
  43. Peter M Caldwell, Christopher S Bretherton, Mark D Zelinka, Stephen A Klein, Benjamin D Santer, and Benjamin M Sanderson. Statistical significance of climate sensitivity predictors obtained by data mining. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(5):1803--1808, 2014.
    DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059205 
    [PDF]
  44. Benjamin M Sanderson. On the estimation of systematic error in regression-based predictions of climate sensitivity. Climatic change, 118(3-4):757--770, 2013.
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0671-6
    [PDF]
  45. Alexandra K Jonko, Karen M Shell, Benjamin M Sanderson, and Gokhan Danabasoglu. Climate feedbacks in CCSM3 under changing CO2 forcing. part II: Variation of climate feedbacks and sensitivity with forcing. Journal of Climate, 26(9):2784--2795, 2013.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00479.1
    [PDF]
  46. Gerald A Meehl, Warren M Washington, Julie M Arblaster, Aixue Hu, Haiyan Teng, Jennifer E Kay, Andrew Gettelman, David M Lawrence, Benjamin M Sanderson, and Warren G Strand. Climate change projections in CESM1 (CAM5) compared to CCSM4. Journal of Climate, 26(17):6287--6308, 2013.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00572.1
    [PDF]
  47. Daniel J Rowlands, David J Frame, Duncan Ackerley, Tolu Aina, Ben BB Booth, Carl Christensen, Matthew Collins, Nicholas Faull, Chris E Forest, Benjamin S Grandey, et al. Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble. Nature Geoscience, 5(4):256, 2012.
    DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1430
    [PDF]
  48. Gerald A Meehl, Aixue Hu, Claudia Tebaldi, Julie M Arblaster, Warren M Washington, Haiyan Teng, Benjamin M Sanderson, Toby Ault, Warren G Strand, and James B White III. Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea-level rise. Nature Climate Change, 2(8):576, 2012.
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1529
    [PDF]
  49. Alexandra K Jonko, Karen M Shell, Benjamin M Sanderson, and Gokhan Danabasoglu. Climate feedbacks in CCSM3 under changing CO2 forcing. part I: Adapting the linear radiative kernel technique to feedback calculations for a broad range of forcings. Journal of Climate, 25(15):5260--5272, 2012.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00524.1
    [PDF]
  50. Benjamin M Sanderson and Karen M Shell. Model-specific radiative kernels for calculating cloud and noncloud climate feedbacks. Journal of Climate, 25(21):7607--7624, 2012.
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00726.1
    [PDF]
  51. Benjamin M Sanderson and Reto Knutti. On the interpretation of constrained climate model ensembles. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(16), 2012.
    DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052665
    bib ]
    [PDF]
  52. Benjamin M Sanderson. A multimodel study of parametric uncertainty in predictions of climate response to rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Journal of Climate, 24(5):1362--1377, 2011.
    DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3498.1
    [PDF]
  53. Erich M Fischer, David M Lawrence, and Benjamin M Sanderson. Quantifying uncertainties in projections of extremes—a perturbed land surface parameter experiment. Climate dynamics, 37(7-8):1381--1398, 2011.
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0915-y 
    [PDF]
  54. Benjamin M Sanderson, Brian C O’Neill, Jeffrey T Kiehl, Gerald A Meehl, Reto Knutti, and Warren M Washington. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 6(3):034005, 2011.
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034005
    [PDF]
  55. Benjamin M Sanderson, Karen M Shell, and William Ingram. Climate feedbacks determined using radiative kernels in a multi-thousand member ensemble of AOGCMs. Climate dynamics, 35(7-8):1219--1236, 2010.  
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0661-1
    [PDF]
  56. Benjamin M Sanderson, C Piani, WJ Ingram, DA Stone, and MR Allen. Towards constraining climate sensitivity by linear analysis of feedback patterns in thousands of perturbed-physics gcm simulations. Climate Dynamics, 30(2-3):175--190, 2008.
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-007-0280-7
    [PDF]
  57. Benjamin M Sanderson, Reto Knutti, T Aina, C Christensen, N Faull, DJ Frame, WJ Ingram, C Piani, David A Stainforth, DA Stone, et al. Constraints on model response to greenhouse gas forcing and the role of subgrid-scale processes. Journal of Climate, 21(11):2384--2400, 2008.
    DOI: 10.1175/2008JCLI1869.1 
    [PDF]
  58. C Piani, B Sanderson, F Giorgi, DJ Frame, C Christensen, and MR Allen. Regional probabilistic climate forecasts from a multithousand, multimodel ensemble of simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 112(D24), 2007.
    DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008712 
    [PDF]
  59. Christopher G Knight, Sylvia HE Knight, Neil Massey, Tolu Aina, Carl Christensen, Dave J Frame, Jamie A Kettleborough, Andrew Martin, Stephen Pascoe, Ben Sanderson, et al. Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104(30):12259--12264, 2007.
    DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0608144104
    [PDF]

Articles in Media

  1. B.M. Sanderson, The planet loses, but U.S. is bigger loser if it withdraws from Paris climate agreement, Washington Post, 05/2017
    [link]
  2. B.M. Sanderson, 1.5ºC: Geophysically impossible or not? Realclimate commentary 10/2017
    [link]
  3. B.M.Sanderson: Potential Trump science adviser says climate change is great, WIRED,
    [link]

Book Chapters

  1. B.M. Sanderson, Uncertainty Quantification in Multi-Model Ensembles, Oxford Research Encyclopedia
    [link]
    [PDF]
  2. B.M. Sanderson and Reto Knutti. Climate change projections projections: Characterizing uncertainty using climate models. Encyclopedia of Sustainability Science and Technology, pages 2097--2114, 2012.
    [link]
    [PDF]

CV (PDF version)

Dr Benjamin Sanderson

Make Our Planet Great Again (MOPGA) researcher
CNRS/CERFACS, Toulouse, France

Affiliate Scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO USA

Research Interests

Climate Modeling Uncertainties, Scenarios, Ensembles, Machine Learning

History

  • 2018-: CERFACS, MOPGA researcher
  • 2008-2018: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder CO
  • 2004-2007: DPhil, University of Oxford (AOPP)

Education

  • 2004–2007 DPhil Atmospheric Science, Oxford University, 2007
  • 2003–2004 MPhys in Atmospheric and GeoPhysics, Oxford University (1st Hons), 2004
  • 2000–2003 BSc Physics (1st Hons), Oxford University

Publications (Full list)

(Google Scholar Page)

h-index 36
citations 4094

leadership

  • Lead Author for US Climate Science Special Report 2016-2017.
  • Co-author for ScenarioMIP/CMIP6 experimental design 2015-2017
  • ”Make Our Planet Great Again” laureate, Agence nationale de la recherche, France, 2018
  • Steering Committee MESH Human-Earth System working group 2019-present
  • Contributing author and reviewer for the 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC
  • Associate Editor, ‘Journal of Climate’ and ‘Atmosphere’

Projects

ESM2025

The ESM2025 project will start in May 2021 and will aim to create the next generation of European ESMs to better understand and predict climate change and inform policy action, both with regard to mitigation and adaptation. to global change. In this context, the Biogeochemistry and Earth System Modeling group at ULB will be responsible for the coupling between the continental and marine component of ESMs via the global hydrographic network. The flows of carbon, nitrogen and associated greenhouse gases (GHG) (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O) will be simulated in order to better constrain the response of the climate system to GHG emissions.
To achieve these goals, ESM2025 brings together a team of world-renowned experts. The new generation of ESMs will keep Europe at the forefront of international efforts to model the Earth system and provide support for European climate policy, climate-related education activities, as well as climate services and future IPCC assessments.

RISCCI

Make Our Planet Great Again (MOPGA)

>RISCCI (Risks and Uncertainties under Climate Change, ANR-17-MPGA-0016) is a project funded by French National Research Agency under the "Make Our Planet Great Again" effort - comprising an ensemble design platform to assess parametric response uncertainty in the CNRM-CM6 climate model. The project to date has conducted the first exhaustive sample of climate response and sensitivity of parametric dependencies of climate risks in the CNRM model - and our goal is to release a set of plausible model configurations which span climate projection uncertainty. The resulting CNRM ensemble explores parametric uncertainty in the atmospheric component of the model (ARPEGE), taking a set of 35 uncertain parameters in the model and exploring the climatic sensitivity of the global and regional climate risks to perturbations. Follow-up ensembles will explore land surface impacts, including fire parameterization sensitivity.

MESH

Modeling Earth System and Human interactions

  • Kate Calvin, PNNL, USA
  • Brian O’Neill, PNNL, USA
  • Julia Pongratz, University of Munich, MPI-M, Germany
  • Ben Sanderson, CNRS/CERFACS, France
  • Detlef van Vuuren, University of Utrecht, Netherlands
The AIMES working group on Modeling Earth System and Human interactions (MESH) will facilitate the development of new methods and scenarios for coupling ESMs, IAMs and other human system models. This working group will bring together diverse communities engaged with integrated and Earth System modeling, foster advances in coupling methods, and stimulate improved use of coupled approaches in analyses. Specific topics include quantifying the magnitude of feedbacks between human and Earth systems, determining strategies for uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, improving consistency between climate representations in different classes of models, and assessing possible approaches to coupled modeling in global scenarios of human-Earth system interactions. Formalizing such feedbacks is a newly emerging field of research.

ScenarioMIP

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) provides multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. The design consists of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions. Climate model projections will facilitate integrated studies of climate change as well as address targeted scientific questions.

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